Kwixesha elidlulileyo, u-Yellen wayetyelele e-China, kuthiwa uthwele "imisebenzi" emininzi, imithombo yeendaba zangaphandle ukumnceda ukuba ashwankathele enye yazo: "ukuqinisekisa amagosa aseTshayina ukuba i-United States egameni lokhuseleko lwesizwe ukuthintela i-China ekufumaneni. Itekhnoloji ebuthathaka efana ne-semiconductors kunye nothotho lwamanyathelo ayenzelwanga ukwenzakalisa uqoqosho lwaseTshayina. ”
Kuthe ngo-2023, iUnited States isungule ukuvalwa kweshishini letshiphu laseTshayina alikho ngaphantsi kwemijikelo elishumi elinesibini, uluhlu lweziko lwamashishini amakhulu kunye nabantu abangaphezu kwama-2,000, ngokuchaseneyo nabo banokwenza isizathu esikhulu, esichukumisayo. , ngokulula nje “ukhalela ukufa ngokwenene.”
Mhlawumbi abantu baseMelika ngokwabo abakwazanga ukunyamezela ukuyibona, eyathi yatshatyalaliswa lelinye inqaku kwiNew York Times.
Kwiintsuku ezine emva kokuba uYellen eshiye iChina, u-Alex Palmer, intatheli yaseChina eyaziwayo kwi-media yangaphandle, yapapasha Inqaku kwi-NYT echaza i-chip blockade yase-US, eyabhalwa ngokuthe ngqo kwisihloko: Lo ngumthetho weMfazwe.
UAlex Palmer, ophumelele isidanga saseHarvard kunye nomfundi wokuqala waseYanjing kwiYunivesithi yasePeking, kudala egubungela iTshayina, kubandakanya uXu Xiang, fentanyl kunye neTikTok, kwaye ngumntu omdala omaziyo oye wenzakalisa iimvakalelo zabantu baseTshayina. Kodwa wafumana abantu baseMelika ukuba bamxelele inyani malunga netshiphu.
Kweli nqaku, omnye umphenduli wathetha phandle ukuba “asiyi kuvumela iChina kuphela ukuba yenze nayiphi na inkqubela kubuchwepheshe, siyakubuya sibuyisele umva inqanaba labo langoku letekhnoloji” kwaye ukuvalwa kwetshiphu “ngokusisiseko malunga nokuphelisa yonke inkqubo yetekhnoloji ephucukileyo yaseTshayina. ”
Abantu baseMelika bathatha igama elithi "edisate," elifana nentsingiselo "yokuphelisa" kunye "nokuncothulwa," kwaye lihlala libhekiswa phambi kwentsholongwane yengqakaqha okanye imibutho yeziyobisi yaseMexico. Ngoku, injongo yegama lishishini lobugcisa obuphezulu baseTshayina. Ukuba la manyathelo aphumelele, anokuchaphazela inkqubela phambili ye-China kwisizukulwana, ababhali baqikelela.
Nabani na ofuna ukuqonda ubungakanani bemfazwe uya kufuna kuphela ukuhlafuna igama elithi phelisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo.
01
Imfazwe eya isanda
Umthetho wokhuphiswano kunye nomthetho wemfazwe enyanisweni zizinto ezimbini ezahlukeneyo ngokupheleleyo.
Ukhuphiswano lweshishini lukhuphiswano ngaphakathi kwesakhelo somthetho, kodwa imfazwe ayifani, umchasi phantse akahoyi nayiphi na imithetho kunye nezithintelo, uya kwenza nantoni na ukuphumeza iinjongo zabo ezicwangcisiweyo. Ngokukodwa kwintsimi yeetshiphusi, iUnited States inokutshintsha rhoqo imigaqo - ulungelelanisa iseti enye, ngokukhawuleza ithathe indawo entsha yokujongana nawe.
Ngokomzekelo, ngo-2018, iSebe lezoRhwebo lase-US lagweba i-Fujian Jinhua ngendlela "yoluhlu lwequmrhu", olukhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekumisweni kwemveliso yokugqibela (eye yaphinda yaqala ukusebenza ngoku); Ngo-2019, iHuawei yafakwa kuluhlu lwequmrhu, ithintela iinkampani zaseMelika ekuboneleleni ngeemveliso kunye neenkonzo kuyo, njengesoftware ye-EDA kunye neGMS kaGoogle.
Emva kokufumanisa ukuba ezi ndlela azikwazi "ukuphelisa" ngokupheleleyo iHuawei, iUnited States yatshintsha imithetho: ukususela ngoMeyi ka-2020, yaqala ukufuna zonke iinkampani ezisebenzisa iteknoloji yaseMelika ukuba zibonelele ngeHuawei, njengesiseko se-TSMC, esakhokelela ngokuthe ngqo kwi-Hisiculus. kunye nokucutheka okubukhali kweefowuni eziphathwayo zikaHuawei, okuzisa ilahleko engaphezulu kwe-100 leebhiliyoni zeeyuan kwikhonkco lemizi-mveliso laseTshayina minyaka le.
Emva koko, ulawulo lweBiden lonyuse i-firepower ekujoliswe kuyo ukusuka “kwishishini” ukuya “kwishishini”, kwaye inani elikhulu lamashishini aseTshayina, iiyunivesithi kunye namaziko ophando lwesayensi aqukwa ngokulandelelana kuluhlu lokuvalwa. Ngomhla we-7 ku-Okthobha, 2022, iBureau yoShishino noKhuseleko yeSebe lase-US (BIS) yakhupha imithetho emitsha yolawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle ephantse yabeka ngokuthe ngqo “isilingi” kwii-semiconductors zaseTshayina:
Iichips ezinengqondo ezingaphantsi kwe-16nm okanye i-14nm, ukugcinwa kwe-NAND kunye ne-128 imigangatho okanye ngaphezulu, iisekethe ezidibeneyo ze-DRAM ezine-18nm okanye ngaphantsi, njl. , nokuba yi-Foundry okanye ukuthengiswa ngokuthe ngqo kweemveliso.
Ngamazwi etanki yokucinga yaseWashington: UTrump ujolise kumashishini, ngelixa uBiden ebetha amashishini.
Xa ufunda inoveli yeNgxaki yeMizimba emithathu, kulula kubafundi abaqhelekileyo ukuba bayiqonde iYang mo yaseZhizi ukutshixa itekhnoloji yoMhlaba; Kodwa ngokwenene, xa abaninzi abantu abangekho kwishishini bejonga ukuvinjelwa kwe-chip, bahlala benombono: nje ukuba uthobela imithetho yase-United States, awuyi kujoliswa; Xa ujongiwe, oko kuthetha ukuba wenze into engalunganga.
Le mbono iqhelekile, kuba abantu abaninzi basahlala kwimo yengqondo "yokhuphiswano". Kodwa “emfazweni,” le mbono isenokuba yinkohliso. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, abaphathi abaninzi be-semiconductor baye babonisa ukuba xa uphando oluzimeleyo lweshishini kunye nophuhliso luqala ukubandakanyeka kwiinkalo eziphambili (nokuba nje uphando lwangaphambili), luya kudibana nodonga lwegesi olungabonakaliyo.
Uphando kunye nophuhliso lweetshiphuphu ezikumgangatho ophezulu zisekwe kwiseti yokubonelela ngetekhnoloji yehlabathi jikelele, njengokwenza iitshiphusi ze-5nm ze-SoC, kufuneka uthenge ii-cores kwi-Arm, uthenge isoftware kwiCandence okanye kwi-Synopsys, uthenge amalungelo awodwa omenzi wechiza kwi-Qualcomm, kwaye ulungelelanise. amandla okuvelisa nge-TSMC... Logama nje ezi zenzo zenziwe, ziya kungena kwindawo yombono wokongamela i-BIS yeSebe lezoRhwebo lase-US.
Ityala elinye yinkampani ye-chip ephethwe ngumenzi wefowuni ephathwayo, eyavula i-subsidiary yophando kunye nophuhliso eTaiwan ukutsala iitalente zengingqi ukwenza iitshiphusi zebakala labathengi, kodwa kungekudala wadibana "nophando" lwamasebe afanelekileyo eTaiwan. Ngokuphelelwa lithemba, i-subsidiary yakhutshwa kumama njengomthengisi ozimeleyo ngaphandle komzimba, kodwa kwafuneka ukuba ilumke.
Ekugqibeleni, i-subsidiary yaseTaiwan yanyanzeliswa ukuba ivalwe emva kohlaselo lwabatshutshisi baseTaiwan "abatshutshisayo" abahlasela kwaye bathatha iiseva zabo (akukho lwaphulo lufunyenweyo). Kwaye emva kweenyanga ezimbalwa, inkampani yabazali nayo yathatha inyathelo lokuqala lokuyichitha - abaphathi abaphezulu bafumanisa ukuba phantsi kokutshintshwa kwe-ban, ukuba nje iprojekthi ye-chip ephezulu, kukho umngcipheko "wokunqakraza enye. ”
Ewe, xa ishishini elingalindelekanga lidibana nomnini-sabelo omkhulu othanda i-moat yetekhnoloji yeMaoxiang, isiphumo sigwetyiwe.
Esi sixhobo "sokucofa ku-zero" siseUnited States siguqule "icandelo lezemizi-mveliso yehlabathi lonke elisekelwe kurhwebo olukhululekileyo" ebekade lilandelwa ekubeni sisixhobo sokuhlasela utshaba. Abaphengululi baseMelika beze negama elithi ukuxhomekeka kwezixhobo kwi-sugarcoat le ndlela yokuziphatha.
Emva kokubona ezi zinto ngokucacileyo, uninzi lwezinto ebezikade ziphikisana akuyomfuneko ukuba zixutyushwe. Ngokomzekelo, akukho sizathu sokulahla iHuawei ngokuphula umthetho wokuvinjelwa kwe-Iran, kuba kuye kwachazwa ngokucacileyo ukuba "i-Iran yinto nje yokuthethelela"; Kuyahlekisa ukugxeka i-China ngomgaqo-nkqubo wayo wezoshishino, kuba i-United States ichitha i-53 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuxhasa ukuveliswa kweetshiphu kunye nokukhuthaza ukuthengiswa kwakhona.
UClausewitz wakha wathi, "Imfazwe kukuqhubela phambili kwezopolitiko." Kuyafana neemfazwe zetshiphu.
02
Ibhlokhi iluma emva
Abanye abantu baya kubuza: iUnited States ukuze "ilizwe lonke lilwe", akukho ndlela yokujongana nayo?
Ukuba ujonge olo hlobo lobuqhetseba bomlingo ukuqhekeza utshaba, akunjalo. Isayensi yekhompyuter ngokwayo yazalelwa eUnited States, ngakumbi ishishini lesekethe elihlanganisiweyo, elinye icala lokusebenzisa iindlela zemfazwe ukudlala ilungelo lokuthetha ngekhonkco loshishino, iChina inokuthatha ixesha elide ukoyisa ukusuka phezulu kunye nokwehla komlambo. kancinci, yinkqubo ende.
Nangona kunjalo, akuyonyani ukuthetha ukuba le "senzo semfazwe" ayinayo imiphumo emibi kwaye ingasetyenziselwa ixesha elide. Impembelelo enkulu yecala le-US i-blockade yecandelo jikelele yile: inika i-China ithuba lokuxhomekeka kwiindlela zemarike, kunokuba kunamandla amakhulu okucwangcisa, ukuxazulula ingxaki.
Esi sivakalisi sinokubonakala kunzima ukusiqonda ekuqaleni. Sinokuqala ukuqonda ukuba yintoni amandla okucwangciswa okucocekileyo, umzekelo, kwishishini le-semiconductor, kukho iprojekthi ekhethekileyo yokuxhasa uphando oluphambili lwezobugcisa, olubizwa ngokuba "iteknoloji yokuvelisa isekethe edibeneyo kunye nenkqubo epheleleyo", imboni idla ngokubizwa ngokuba 02 ekhethekileyo, iimali ezisulungekileyo.
I-02 ekhethekileyo iinkampani ezininzi ezithathiweyo, xa umbhali ekwi-investment semiconductor, xa inkampani yophando yabona ininzi "ye-02 ekhethekileyo" ishiye i-prototype, emva kokubona imvakalelo yokuxuba, indlela yokuthetha? Uninzi lwezixhobo ezifunjwe kwindawo yokugcina iimpahla zingwevu, mhlawumbi kuphela xa iinkokeli zohlolo ziya kukhutshelwa ngaphandle ukuze zipolishe.
Ngokuqinisekileyo, iprojekthi ekhethekileyo ye-02 yanikezela ngemali ebalulekileyo kumashishini ebusika ngelo xesha, kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukusebenza kakuhle kokusetyenziswa kwezi mali akuphezulu. Ukuxhomekeka kwinkxaso-mali yodwa (nangona izibonelelo zingamashishini), ndiyoyika ukuba kunzima ukwenza ubugcisa kunye neemveliso ezinokufakwa kwimarike. Nabani na owakhe wenza uphando uyakwazi oku.
Ngaphambi kweemfazwe ze-chip, i-China yayinezixhobo ezininzi ezitsala nzima, izixhobo kunye neenkampani ezincinci ze-chip ezazabalaza ukukhuphisana nabalingane babo bangaphandle, kwaye iinkampani ezifana ne-SMIC, i-JCET kunye ne-Huawei ngokuqhelekileyo abazange banikele ingqalelo kakhulu kubo, kwaye kulula ukuqonda ukuba kutheni. : abanakuzisebenzisa iimveliso zasekhaya xa benokuthenga iimveliso zangaphandle ezisele zikhulile nezingabizi kakhulu.
Kodwa ukuvalwa kweUnited States kwishishini letshiphu laseTshayina kuzise ithuba elinqabileyo kwezi nkampani.
Kwimeko ye-blockade, abavelisi basekhaya ababengahoywa ngaphambili ngeefabs okanye izityalo zokuvavanya ezitywiniweyo baphuthuma kwiishelufu, kwaye inani elikhulu lezixhobo kunye nezinto eziphathekayo zithunyelwa kumgca wokuvelisa ukuqinisekiswa. Kwaye imbalela ende kunye nemvula yeefektri ezincinci zasekhaya ngequbuliso yabona ithemba, akukho mntu waba nobuganga bokuchitha eli thuba lixabisekileyo, ngoko basebenza ngokungadinwayo ukuphucula iimveliso.
Nangona lo ngumjikelo wangaphakathi wokuthengisa, ukunyanzeliswa ngaphandle kwentengiso, kodwa ukusebenza kwayo kukwasebenza ngakumbi kunendlela ecocekileyo yokucwangcisa: Intliziyo yentsimbi enye ukuya endaweni yasekhaya, elinye iqela libambe ngokungxamisekileyo iindiza, nakwisayensi kunye netekhnoloji. ibhodi isiphumo esityebileyo ephefumlelwe semiconductor upstream phantse zonke icandelo nkqo kukho iinkampani ezininzi umthamo.
Siye sabala indlela yengeniso yeenkampani ze-semiconductor ezidweliswe eTshayina kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo (kuphela iinkampani ezineminyaka elishumi yokusebenza ngokuqhubekayo zikhethiwe), kwaye siya kubona ukukhula okucacileyo: kwiminyaka eyi-10 eyadlulayo, inzuzo epheleleyo yezi nkampani zasekhaya. kuphela ngaphezu kweebhiliyoni ezi-3, kwaye ngo-2022, inzuzo yabo iyonke idlule kwi-33.4 yezigidigidi, phantse i-10 yeminyaka eyi-10 eyadlulayo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-30-2023
