Kwixesha elidlulileyo, u-Yellen utyelele e-China, kuthiwa uphethe "imisebenzi" emininzi, imithombo yeendaba zangaphandle ukumnceda ashwankathele enye yazo: "ukuqinisekisa amagosa aseTshayina ukuba i-United States egameni lokhuseleko lwesizwe ukuthintela i-China ekufumaneni iteknoloji ebuthathaka njenge-semiconductors kunye nothotho lwamanyathelo ayenzelwanga ukwenzakalisa uqoqosho lwaseTshayina."
Bekungowama-2023, iUnited States yaphehlelela isithintelo kushishino lwetshiphu yaseTshayina ibingekho ngaphantsi kwemijikelo elishumi elinambini, uluhlu lwamaqumrhu amashishini amakhulu kunye nabantu abangaphezulu kwama-2,000, okwahlukileyo kunokwenza esona sizathu sikhulu, sichukumise, “ngokwenene, ndikhalela ukufa.”
Mhlawumbi abantu baseMelika ngokwabo abakwazanga ukunyamezela ukuyibona, eyathi yatshatyalaliswa lelinye inqaku kwiNew York Times.
Kwiintsuku ezine emva kokuba uYellen eshiye iChina, u-Alex Palmer, intatheli yaseChina eyaziwayo kwi-media yangaphandle, yapapasha Inqaku kwi-NYT echaza i-chip blockade yase-US, eyabhalwa ngokuthe ngqo kwisihloko: Lo ngumthetho weMfazwe.
UAlex Palmer, ophumelele isidanga saseHarvard kunye nomfundi wokuqala waseYanjing kwiYunivesithi yasePeking, kudala egubungela iTshayina, kubandakanya uXu Xiang, fentanyl kunye neTikTok, kwaye ngumntu omdala omaziyo oye wenzakalisa iimvakalelo zabantu baseTshayina. Kodwa wafumana abantu baseMelika ukuba bamxelele inyani malunga netshiphu.
Kweli nqaku, omnye umphenduli wathi "asiyi kuvumela i-China ukuba yenze nayiphi na inkqubela kwitekhnoloji, siyakubuyela umva inqanaba labo langoku letekhnoloji" kwaye ukuvalwa kwe-chip "ngokusisiseko malunga nokuphelisa yonke inkqubo yetekhnoloji ephezulu yaseTshayina."
Abantu baseMelika bathatha igama elithi "edisate," elifana nentsingiselo "yokuphelisa" kunye "nokuncothulwa," kwaye lihlala libhekiswa phambi kwentsholongwane yengqakaqha okanye imibutho yeziyobisi yaseMexico. Ngoku, injongo yegama lishishini lobugcisa obuphezulu baseTshayina. Ukuba la manyathelo aphumelele, anokuchaphazela inkqubela phambili ye-China kwisizukulwana, ababhali baqikelela.
Nabani na ofuna ukuqonda ubungakanani bemfazwe uya kufuna kuphela ukuhlafuna igama elithi phelisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo.
01
Imfazwe eya isanda
Umthetho wokhuphiswano kunye nomthetho wemfazwe enyanisweni zizinto ezimbini ezahlukeneyo ngokupheleleyo.
Ukhuphiswano lweshishini lukhuphiswano ngaphakathi kwesakhelo somthetho, kodwa imfazwe ayifani, umchasi phantse akahoyi nayiphi na imithetho kunye nezithintelo, uya kwenza nantoni na ukuphumeza iinjongo zabo ezicwangcisiweyo. Ngokukodwa kwintsimi yeetshiphusi, iUnited States inokutshintsha rhoqo imigaqo - ulungelelanisa iseti enye, ngokukhawuleza ithathe indawo entsha yokujongana nawe.
Ngokomzekelo, ngo-2018, iSebe lezoRhwebo lase-US lagweba i-Fujian Jinhua ngendlela "yoluhlu lwequmrhu", olukhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekumisweni kwemveliso yokugqibela (eye yaphinda yaqala ukusebenza ngoku); Ngo-2019, iHuawei yafakwa kuluhlu lwequmrhu, ithintela iinkampani zaseMelika ekuboneleleni ngeemveliso kunye neenkonzo kuyo, njengesoftware ye-EDA kunye neGMS kaGoogle.
Emva kokufumanisa ukuba ezi ndlela azikwazi "ukuphelisa" ngokupheleleyo iHuawei, iUnited States yatshintsha imithetho: ukususela ngoMeyi ka-2020, yaqala ukufuna zonke iinkampani ezisebenzisa iteknoloji yaseMelika ukuba zibonelele ngeHuawei, njengesiseko se-TSMC, eyakhokelela ngokuthe ngqo kwi-Hisiculus kunye nokunciphisa okubukhali kweefowuni zeHuawei, ezizisa ngaphezu kwe-100 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni zelahleko kunyaka ngamnye we-yuan yaseChina.
Emva koko, ulawulo lweBiden lonyuse i-firepower ekujoliswe kuyo ukusuka “kwishishini” ukuya “kwishishini”, kwaye inani elikhulu lamashishini aseTshayina, iiyunivesithi kunye namaziko ophando lwesayensi aqukwa ngokulandelelana kuluhlu lokuvalwa. Ngomhla we-7 ku-Okthobha, 2022, iBureau yoShishino noKhuseleko yeSebe lase-US (BIS) yakhupha imithetho emitsha yolawulo lokuthumela ngaphandle ephantse yabeka ngokuthe ngqo “isilingi” kwii-semiconductors zaseTshayina:
Iichips ezinengqondo ezingaphantsi kwe-16nm okanye i-14nm, ukugcinwa kwe-NAND kunye neengqimba ze-128 okanye ngaphezulu, iisekethe ezidibeneyo ze-DRAM ezine-18nm okanye ngaphantsi, njl.
Ngamazwi etanki yokucinga yaseWashington: UTrump ujolise kumashishini, ngelixa uBiden ebetha amashishini.
Xa ufunda inoveli yeNgxaki yeMizimba emithathu, kulula kubafundi abaqhelekileyo ukuba bayiqonde iYang mo yaseZhizi ukutshixa itekhnoloji yoMhlaba; Kodwa ngokwenene, xa abaninzi abantu abangekho kwishishini bejonga ukuvinjelwa kwe-chip, bahlala benombono: nje ukuba uthobela imithetho yase-United States, awuyi kujoliswa; Xa ujongiwe, oko kuthetha ukuba wenze into engalunganga.
Le mbono iqhelekile, kuba abantu abaninzi basahlala kwimo yengqondo "yokhuphiswano". Kodwa “emfazweni,” le mbono isenokuba yinkohliso. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, abaphathi abaninzi be-semiconductor baye babonisa ukuba xa uphando oluzimeleyo lweshishini kunye nophuhliso luqala ukubandakanyeka kwiinkalo eziphambili (nokuba nje uphando lwangaphambili), luya kudibana nodonga lwegesi olungabonakaliyo.
Uphando kunye nophuhliso lweetshiphusi eziphezulu zisekwe kwiseti yokubonelela ngetekhnoloji yehlabathi jikelele, njengokwenza iitshiphusi ze-5nm ze-SoC, kufuneka uthenge ii-cores kwi-Arm, uthenge isoftware evela kwi-Candence okanye kwi-Synopsys, uthenge amalungelo awodwa omenzi wechiza kwi-Qualcomm, kwaye ulungelelanise umthamo wemveliso kunye ne-TSMC ... Logama ezi zenzo zenziwe, ziya kungena kwintsimi yombono weSebe loRhwebo lase-US.
Ityala elinye yinkampani ye-chip ephethwe ngumenzi wefowuni ephathwayo, eyavula i-subsidiary yophando kunye nophuhliso eTaiwan ukutsala iitalente zengingqi ukwenza iitshiphusi zebakala labathengi, kodwa kungekudala wadibana "nophando" lwamasebe afanelekileyo eTaiwan. Ngokuphelelwa lithemba, i-subsidiary yakhutshwa kumama njengomthengisi ozimeleyo ngaphandle komzimba, kodwa kwafuneka ukuba ilumke.
Ekugqibeleni, i-subsidiary yaseTaiwan yanyanzeliswa ukuba ivalwe emva kohlaselo lwabatshutshisi baseTaiwan "abatshutshisayo" abahlasela kwaye bathatha iiseva zabo (akukho lwaphulo lufunyenweyo). Kwaye kwiinyanga ezimbalwa kamva, inkampani yabazali nayo yathatha inyathelo lokuqala lokuchitha - abaphathi abaphezulu bafumanisa ukuba phantsi kokuvalwa kokutshintsha, okoko nje kuyiprojekthi ye-chip ephezulu, kukho umngcipheko "wokucofa-kanye zero."
Ewe, xa ishishini elingalindelekanga lidibana nomnini-sabelo omkhulu othanda i-moat yetekhnoloji yeMaoxiang, isiphumo sigwetyiwe.
Esi sixhobo "sokucofa ku-zero" siseUnited States siguqule "icandelo lezemizi-mveliso yehlabathi lonke elisekelwe kurhwebo olukhululekileyo" ebekade lilandelwa ekubeni sisixhobo sokuhlasela utshaba. Abaphengululi baseMelika beze negama elithi ukuxhomekeka kwezixhobo kwi-sugarcoat le ndlela yokuziphatha.
Emva kokubona ezi zinto ngokucacileyo, uninzi lwezinto ebezikade ziphikisana akuyomfuneko ukuba zixutyushwe. Ngokomzekelo, akukho sizathu sokulahla iHuawei ngokuphula umthetho wokuvinjelwa kwe-Iran, kuba kuye kwachazwa ngokucacileyo ukuba "i-Iran yinto nje yokuthethelela"; Kuyahlekisa ukugxeka i-China ngomgaqo-nkqubo wayo wezoshishino, kuba i-United States ichitha i-53 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuxhasa ukuveliswa kweetshiphu kunye nokukhuthaza ukuthengiswa kwakhona.
UClausewitz wakha wathi, "Imfazwe kukuqhubela phambili kwezopolitiko." Kuyafana neemfazwe zetshiphu.
02
Ibhlokhi iluma emva
Abanye abantu baya kubuza: iUnited States ukuze "ilizwe lonke lilwe", akukho ndlela yokujongana nayo?
Ukuba ujonge olo hlobo lobuqhetseba bomlingo ukuqhekeza utshaba, akunjalo. Isayensi yeKhompyutha ngokwayo yazalelwa eUnited States, ngokukodwa ushishino lwesekethe oludibeneyo, elinye icala lokusebenzisa iindlela zemfazwe ukudlala ilungelo lokuthetha ngetsheyini yezoshishino, i-China inokuthatha ixesha elide ukuba liloyise ukusuka phezulu kunye nezantsi kancinci kancinci, nto leyo yinkqubo ende.
Nangona kunjalo, akuyonyani ukuthetha ukuba le "senzo semfazwe" ayinayo imiphumo emibi kwaye ingasetyenziselwa ixesha elide. Impembelelo enkulu yecala le-US i-blockade yecandelo jikelele yile: inika i-China ithuba lokuxhomekeka kwiindlela zemarike, kunokuba kunamandla amakhulu okucwangcisa, ukuxazulula ingxaki.
Esi sivakalisi sinokubonakala kunzima ukusiqonda ekuqaleni. Sinokuqala ukuqonda ukuba yintoni amandla okucwangciswa okucocekileyo, umzekelo, kwishishini le-semiconductor, kukho iprojekthi ekhethekileyo yokuxhasa uphando oluphambili lobugcisa, olubizwa ngokuba "iteknoloji yokuvelisa isekethe enkulu kakhulu kunye nenkqubo epheleleyo", i-shishini lidla ngokubizwa ngokuba yi-02 ekhethekileyo, imali ecocekileyo yemali.
I-02 ekhethekileyo iinkampani ezininzi ezithathiweyo, xa umbhali ekwi-investment semiconductor, xa inkampani yophando yabona ininzi "ye-02 ekhethekileyo" ishiye i-prototype, emva kokubona imvakalelo yokuxuba, indlela yokuthetha? Uninzi lwezixhobo ezifunjwe kwindawo yokugcina iimpahla zingwevu, mhlawumbi kuphela xa iinkokeli zohlolo ziya kukhutshelwa ngaphandle ukuze zipolishe.
Ngokuqinisekileyo, iprojekthi ekhethekileyo ye-02 yanikezela ngemali ebalulekileyo kumashishini ebusika ngelo xesha, kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukusebenza kakuhle kokusetyenziswa kwezi mali akuphezulu. Ukuxhomekeka kwinkxaso-mali yodwa (nangona izibonelelo zingamashishini), ndiyoyika ukuba kunzima ukwenza ubugcisa kunye neemveliso ezinokufakwa kwimarike. Nabani na owakhe wenza uphando uyakwazi oku.
Ngaphambi kweemfazwe ze-chip, i-China yayinezixhobo ezininzi ezitsala nzima, izixhobo kunye neenkampani ezincinci ze-chip ezazizabalaza ukukhuphisana nabalingane babo bangaphandle, kunye neenkampani ezifana ne-SMIC, i-JCET kunye ne-Huawei ngokuqhelekileyo abazange banikele ingqalelo kakhulu kubo, kwaye kulula ukuqonda ukuba kutheni: bebengayi kusebenzisa imveliso yasekhaya xa benokuthenga iimveliso zangaphandle ezivuthiweyo kunye neendleko ezifanelekileyo.
Kodwa ukuvalwa kweUnited States kwishishini letshiphu laseTshayina kuzise ithuba elinqabileyo kwezi nkampani.
Kwimeko ye-blockade, abavelisi basekhaya ababengahoywa ngaphambili ngeefabs okanye izityalo zokuvavanya ezitywiniweyo baphuthuma kwiishelufu, kwaye inani elikhulu lezixhobo kunye nezinto eziphathekayo zithunyelwa kumgca wokuvelisa ukuqinisekiswa. Kwaye imbalela ende kunye nemvula yeefektri ezincinci zasekhaya ngequbuliso yabona ithemba, akukho mntu waba nobuganga bokuchitha eli thuba lixabisekileyo, ngoko basebenza ngokungadinwayo ukuphucula iimveliso.
Nangona lo ngumjikelo wangaphakathi wokuthengisa, ukunyanzeliswa ngaphandle kwentengiso, kodwa ukusebenza kwayo kuyasebenza ngakumbi kunendlela ecocekileyo yokucwangcisa: Intliziyo enye yentsimbi ukuya endaweni yasekhaya, elinye iqela libambe iindiza, kwaye kwibhodi yesayensi kunye nethekhnoloji isiphumo esityebileyo esiphefumlelwe yi-semiconductor enyukayo malunga necandelo elithe nkqo kukho iinkampani ezininzi kumthamo.
Sibalile indlela yenzuzo yeenkampani ze-semiconductor ezidweliswe eTshayina kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo (kuphela iinkampani ezineminyaka elishumi yokusebenza ngokuqhubekayo zikhethiwe), kwaye siya kubona ukukhula okucacileyo: kwiminyaka eyi-10 eyadlulayo, inzuzo epheleleyo yezi nkampani zasekhaya yayingaphezu kweebhiliyoni ezi-3 kuphela, kwaye ngo-2022, inzuzo yabo iyonke yadlula i-33.4 yezigidigidi, phantse kwiminyaka eyi-10 eyadlulayo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-30-2023
